Alaska Senate: Mark Begich(D-incumbent) vs Dan Sullivan(R)
Race Rating: Leans Republican
This race has been somewhat difficult to get a read on. Not so much because of consistency in polling(Sullivan has consistently led in all reliable polls since August), but more because of the pollsters’ tendency to under-sample Republicans in this very Republican-leaning state. For example, in 2008, polls consistently showed Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz leading established incumbents Ted Stevens and Don Young by wide margins. Stevens ultimately fell just a few thousand votes short of winning, while Young went on to win by a stellar margin(5%). Sullivan’s polling leads have ranged anywhere between a fraction of a percentage point and 6%, with some leads higher than that. All that having been said, Begich is purportedly one of the better political ground-gamers around. That, and the as of yet unknown level of under-sampling of AK Republicans causes me to label this one “Leans Republican” instead of “Republican Favoured,” a label present polling would seem to be more corroborative of. Prediction: Sullivan 50-44 over Begich.
Colorado Senate: Mark Udall(D-incumbent) vs Cory Gardner(R)
Race Rating: Republican Favoured
What was once considered a maybe race for the GOP has rapidly developed into a slam dunk for the GOP. It all started the day Gardner, a US Representative who was swept into office in the 2010 wave, announced his candidacy for this race, effectively clearing the field of such lower-grade contenders as former Weld County DA and 2010 US Senate nominee(and this year’s CO-4 nominee) Ken Buck and State Legislators Randy Baumgardner, Owen Hill, and Amy Stephens. At the start of the race, polls showed a very close race, with Mark Udall usually holding a slight advantage. That said, Udall has, as of late, been saddled with both Obama’s sinking approvals and the backfiring of his decision to make the “War on Women” the key theme of his re-election campaign. To his credit, Gardner has negated the effect of this line of attack by coming out in support of birth control and contraception. In recent months, Gardner has opened up a sturdy and stable lead on Udall. Current early-voting totals indicate un-paralelled enthusiasm for the GOP ticket. The question is not whether or not Gardner wins, but whether or not he pulls GOP Gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez over the finish line. Prediction: Gardner 54-44 over Udall.
Iowa Senate: Bruce Braley(D) vs Joni Ernst(R)
Race Rating: Tilt Republican
This race has proven to be one of the more un-predictable races of the 2014 election season. Braley started out as the solid frontrunner going up against a plethora of seemingly C-list GOPers. All of this changed upon the release of an ad by Joni Ernst, in which she spoke of her upbringing on an Iowa farm, her experience castrating hogs, and how all this would help her when she got to Washington. This ad vaulted her into contention for the nomination, and ultimately the nomination itself. Her General Election prospects improved when Braley proceeded to put his feet into his mouth with numerous disparaging comments about Chuck Grassley and Iowa farmers. That said, given the fairly evenly split nature of Iowa politics, this race has been very close, with both parties sensing the opportunity to go in for the kill here. As of late, the advertising in this race has been both very costly and very negative. Given Braley’s likability issues and GOP Governor Terry Branstad’s long coat-tails, not only should Ernst win, but she should also win by a larger than expected margin. Prediction: Ernst 50-46 over Braley.
Kansas Senate: Pat Roberts(R-incumbent) vs Greg Orman(D)
Race Rating: Tossup
Ever since Roberts limped over the finish line in his re-nomination campaign against Dr. Milton Wolf, Roberts has had a hard time in locking down his party’s Conservative base for the General Election campaign. Initially, he struggled with low numbers against the formal Democratic nominee(Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor, who also won his Primary by a narrower than expected margin), though he still led him by a good clip with those horrid numbers. Everything changed 2 weeks later, when Taylor dropped out and endorsed the candidacy of “Independent” self-funding businessman Greg Orman. After no small level of wrangling over the removal of Taylor from the ballot, the courts acquiesced, and the General Election campaign was in full swing. Roberts has consistently struggled against Orman, with some polls showing Orman up big, reputable ones of recent showing a tie, and others who show varying leads for Roberts. The key here will be disgruntled Conservatives who backed Wolf: Will they hold their noses for Roberts, give the middle finger for Orman, or just stay home all together. This is about as pure a tossup as Senate races go this cycle. At this point, though, I would be willing to project a narrow Roberts win. Prediction: Roberts 49-47 over Orman.
New Mexico Senate: Tom Udall(D-incumbent) vs Allen Weh(R)
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
Polls in the past week have been tightening on this one. What was once looking to be a double-digit rout in favour of Tom Udall(cousin of Mark) has now tightened into a single-digit affair which has the potential to produce an upset. Many factors have contributed to Udall’s fall in the polls, namely Obama’s sinking approvals(the last averages I saw–from March of this year–had him at -4, or 44-48 approve/disapprove) and the absolute drubbing Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Gary King is receiving at the hands of popular Republican Governor Susana Martinez, who is also one of the leading GOP Presidential prospects for 2016. That said, he appears to be in slightly better shape than cousin Mark, as the last polls on both races had both Tom leading and Mark trailing by 7%. President Obama carried this state both times by double digits, and it is generally considered a left-leaning state(though Bush did narrowly win here in 2004). It is likely too late for Weh to pull out a win, but an upset still remains very possible. This one bears close observation, as a GOP win here would be a sure signal of historic gains in both chambers, and would likely mean that present tossup races such as those in IA, KS, NC, and NH have already fallen to the GOP by convincing margins. Prediction: Udall 52-47 over Weh.
South Dakota Senate: Rick Weiland(D) vs Mike Rounds(R) vs Larry Pressler(I/D) vs Gordon Howie(I/R)
Race Rating: Republican Favoured
This race was as recently as one week ago the subject of speculation regarding the prospect of an “October Surprise.” Mike Rounds had, since the start of the race, been holding big, if unimpressive, leads over his fractured opposition. In recent weeks, though, a combination of forces came together to seriously threaten Rounds’ campaign. First was recent revelations regarding the failed EB-5 immigration program Rounds had implemented and enforced as Governor, and second was Rounds’ poorly run campaign and campaign skills. Depending upon which poll you believed, it was either Weiland, aide to outgoing Senator Tim Johnson, or former US Senator Pressler who was benefiting from Rounds’ seeming implosion. For the most part, that candidate seemed to be Pressler, who is trying to win as a self-described “Barack Obama Republican” in a state that rejected the aforementioned Obama twice by sturdy margins. As of late, Rounds has regained his footing and Pressler has spiraled downward to a distant 3rd place, and may not even poll double digits come election day. The question regarding this race doesn’t seem to be whether or not Rounds will win or who polls second. Rather, the big question is whether or not Pressler spirals so far down that he is out-polled by former State Legislator Gordon Howie, the right wing Independent in the race. At this time, the answer to that question appears to be a ‘no.’ Prediction: Rounds 47-39-8-6 over Weiland, Pressler, and Howie.
SE-779….
Share on Facebook